Focus on the polls a mistake

Brandon Nelson, Staff Writer

Almost everyone was shocked when President-Elect Donald J. Trump emerged victorious just a few weeks ago. For most, this was a result of media outlets repeatedly declaring Hillary Clinton as the eventual winner, and suggesting that Trump had lost before the night even began. Yet, on election night, all the predictions, pundits and media propaganda were turned on their heads as Trump was declared the winner.

So, just how did this happen? How could journalists have all been wrong?

Most of the error came from polling, which was used throughout the primary and general election. Misleading polls filled headlines earlier this summer, and also in the fall.

Just a day before the Brexit vote, the Financial Times held a poll declaring 48 percent of British voters wanted to stay in the EU, while only 46 percent wanted to leave. Some of the other polls had the spread even larger than that leading up to the vote, showing a 15-point spread in favor of staying. However, the end result was a 52-48 percent in favor of leaving the EU.

Then, in October, there was the vote on the Columbian Peace Deal. According to The Guardian, a poll was conducted close to the vote that showed 66 percent in favor of the peace deal, but pollsters were wrong again and the Peace Deal was shot down 50.2-49.8 percent.

These were just a few of the warning signs to pollsters worldwide that they should have adjusted their polling processes, or at least warned citizens and the media that they were not as confident as they had been in the past.

Even polling here in Wisconsin was very, very inaccurate, starting with the Democratic Primary. According to the RealClearPolitics, the poll of polls, Bernie Sanders held an overall 2.6 percent advantage over Clinton, in fact on the very day of the primary Clinton had been ahead +1 on Sanders. The end result though was a big win for Bernie Sanders 56.6-43.1.

Then, in the general election, Trump became the first Republican since Ronald Reagan to win the state of Wisconsin, even though during the whole election process there was not one single state poll conducted that showed Trump leading in Wisconsin.

While this was not the only reason the media had so much misplaced confidence in the election outcome, it sure played a big role, and, going forward, the pollsters have some work to do.